Coffee’s Precarious Position

 

Weather variability has increased and will only become more extreme as the atmosphere warms. A general overview of why this current variability will continue to increase in the coming years can be found in this blog: Food Security and Weather Variability.


Coffee's Precarious Position (August 2017)

  • Coffee stores in many areas are at historic lows
  • Global demand for coffee is steady and growing
  • Understanding each of the coffee tree’s growth stages is
    key to accurately forecasting yields
  • aWhere monitors all of the world’s coffee growing regions 
    with complete, highly localized coverage on a daily basis
  • This complete global coverage allows us to forecast crop
    stress, and ultimately, crop yields

The coffee plant, particularly Arabica (the more rich and tasty type), is vulnerable to decreased production due to many factors from too warm nighttime temperatures to variable rains and drought. Taking between 30-35 weeks from flowering to harvest-ready, the risk of stressed periods is much greater now than ever. Stressed trees are more susceptible to disease and insect damage. The last section of this document is a brief primer on growing coffee and the relationship between the coffee tree and the weather.

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Four easy ways to manage Global Commodities Risk with Weather and Agronomic Insight

If you are looking to make life easier for yourself, we are always happy to help. To give you a hand, we've compiled a list of four easy ways to manage Global Commodities Risk with Weather and Agronomic Insight:

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Tracking Sugar and All Agricultural Commodities Production Globally

aWhere, Inc. leverages our 5 arc min (~9km x 9km) global ‘virtual weather station’ database (> 2M daily, current, complete agro-meteorological datasets) to monitor sugar, coffee and all global agriculture/soft commodities with unparalleled spatial and temporal fidelity. 

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ISO crop expectations provide support for world sugar futures

The No.11 market saw the strong surge that we have been anticipating this week, with ICE March-16 futures closing Tuesday’s session up 10.88% at 14.0 and May-16 up 8.31% at 13.82. 

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Supply Side Support in Orange Juice Futures

Last week, the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released a decrease in their domestic orange production estimate for 2015/16; this follows their reduction in 2014/15 output as well, so the orange juice futures market may be moving towards a supportive pricing structure in 2016. The chart below (from barchart.com) shows activity over the last five days for November-15 futures; with today’s trading exhibiting a 6% increase from yesterday.

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India's Southwest Monsoon and the Risk to Commodities

In anticipation of this year’s Southwest Monsoon in India, many agricultural commodity risk managers are closely tracking the daily weather forecasts. Now that we are in the second week of June and the onset is slightly behind the “normal” schedule, there is a heightened level of uncertainty.

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