Blog 180128.pngCurrent coffee production conditions in Brazil appear to have some contradictory messages.  Yes, it is drier than normal.  Yes, some areas have experienced some short periods of water stress – and there are a few areas that seriously need some rainfall to maintain healthy production.   But ‘drier than normal’ conditions does not equate to drought stress as current conditions, though drier than normal, can still have sufficient moisture to maintain plant health.  Check out the recent aWhere Commodity Watch – Coffee Production Conditions, Brazil, end January 2018.

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aWhere Coffee Report: Monitoring Brazil - December 13, 2017

aWhere is pleased to provide a mid-December perspective on the current Brazil coffee crop. Dryness that had started to cause concern has pretty much disappeared and most of Brazil’s production areas have received ample rainfall. One small caution worth watching… Last year’s harvest was smaller than expected due in part to dry conditions in January and again in late February and March. In addition, there was more damage than expected from coffee borer.  Insect pests can multiply incredibly quickly and with this season’s anticipated big harvest (~60M bags is now a common target), no weather aberrations or significant insect damage can occur to reach that target.

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Ag-met conditions over Brazil’s coffee production area - Nov 28 2018

Ag-met conditions over Brazil’s coffee production area - November 28 2017

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Coffee’s Precarious Position

 

Weather variability has increased and will only become more extreme as the atmosphere warms. A general overview of why this current variability will continue to increase in the coming years can be found in this blog: Food Security and Weather Variability.


Coffee's Precarious Position (August 2017)

  • Coffee stores in many areas are at historic lows
  • Global demand for coffee is steady and growing
  • Understanding each of the coffee tree’s growth stages is
    key to accurately forecasting yields
  • aWhere monitors all of the world’s coffee growing regions 
    with complete, highly localized coverage on a daily basis
  • This complete global coverage allows us to forecast crop
    stress, and ultimately, crop yields

The coffee plant, particularly Arabica (the more rich and tasty type), is vulnerable to decreased production due to many factors from too warm nighttime temperatures to variable rains and drought. Taking between 30-35 weeks from flowering to harvest-ready, the risk of stressed periods is much greater now than ever. Stressed trees are more susceptible to disease and insect damage. The last section of this document is a brief primer on growing coffee and the relationship between the coffee tree and the weather.

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