Today was an interesting day in the coffee markets with futures prices trading up 1.00 then down -3.00 and closing -0.45. Record commercial long positions sit counter to record speculative shorts.
Other ‘weather’ reports describe recent rains covering much of the key production areas. aWhere monitors, in detail, all agro-meteorological variables in high detail, and although scattered rains fell throughout the coffee production region, often the total rainfall for the week was less than 20mm (map below on the left). More to the point, the map to the right of the rainfall map shows the ratio of P (precipitation or rainfall) to PET (Potential evapotranspiration), and here we note that little to no soil moisture recharge could have taken place for areas where the P/PET ratio is below 0.80 – the orange and red areas in the right map.
Monitoring rainfall is important, but we are seeing temperatures just a couple degrees warmer than normal. PET increases with warmer and drier air – and the rains over southern Minas Gerais and to the south were pretty light.
As we noted in our 10 November blog on monitoring Brazil coffee production (awhere Commodity Report: Early season insight into Brazil's coffee crop ), the forecasts can sometimes be signifcantly off. Again, weather reports for the coffee production area are for good rains in the coming week - see the map set below. Rainfall forecast (the map on the left below) shows scattered rains with amounts from 10 to 50 mm common. Some areas are forecast to get to 100 mm or more. The Forecast map on the right interprets the rainfall in ratio with PET (for more about PET see How Thirsty is the Atmosphere ), and here we see areas forecasted to receive sufficient rain for soil moisture improvement – and some areas forecasted to remain fairly dry.
Monitoring what actually occurs is the key to predicting the eventual size of the harvest – and the predicted massive production of 60M bags if there are no weather impacts – remains to be seen.
For more information on access to these detailed monitoring information email [email protected].