Ag-met conditions over Brazil’s coffee production area - November 28 2017
This week I’ll begin with a look at environmental conditions over the past 30 days for the coffee growing regions of Brazil. Good rains fell in late October and there have been reports that the coffee crop has mostly completed flowering. There was earlier flowering – especially the odd mid-August rains that triggered some flowering in norther Parana; and so as we move through the season to harvest, we will monitor the weather ‘since flowering’ across each location carefully because there are growth stage specific sensitivities to environmental conditions that can compromise yield.
The main coffee production region of SE Brazil saw good rains over the past 30 days. Current observed rainfall, always important, must be given perspective. Map 2 compares this 30 day period to the long-term normal rainfall (LTN). We see that W Sao Paulo was wetter than normal, while SE Minas Gerais(MG) was drier than normal.
In addition to comparing rainfall to the LTN, it is imperative that we examine the rainfall relative to temperature, humidity, and wind. These 3 (plus solar radiation) are the primary drivers of Potential Evapotranspiration.
Map 3 shows the current observed ‘last 30 day’ P/PET. Important to note, very little area had any acute water stress; although we must watch Espirito Santo(ES) closely because their coffee is irrigated. In ES, rains have been inadequate (since April/May) to refill reservoirs; and if a strong water need emerges then those coffee hectares may get compromised.
Looking ahead to the next 7 day forecast, the situation improves especially for some of the areas showing slightly lower P/PET in Map 3. Maps 4 and 5 show the 7 day total rainfall (28 November through 4 December) and the forecasted P/PET. MG and ES look pretty good for the coming week. Soil moisture recharge starts to be significant when P/PET > 1.0 and the forecast is positive for virtually all of MG.
The last 7 days observed information helps balance the forecast just shown. Whereas SP and Parana are mostly dry in the coming 7 days, the last 7 days both states have been mostly good in terms of sufficient moisture (Maps 6 and 7).
The coffee growing season is now in full swing. The next months will determine if the huge crop forecasted by many will emerge or fall short. As summer temperatures climb and a weak La Nina plays out, aWhere will continue to monitor and provide insight into the health of the Brazilian coffee crop.
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