Today’s forecast, aggregated over the next 7 days, paints a view of Brazil’s main coffee production area that should encourage producers. Good rains are forecast and sufficient to put some needed water reserves into the soil column.
The last 7 days – observed rainfall and P/PET are shown below. The southeast part of Minas Gerais received sufficient rainfall to see some soil moisture recharge, but western Sao Paulo and northern Parana were dry.
In the maps below, we show on the left the forecasted 7 day total precipitation as of 14 November. The map on the right shows the last 7 days total precipitation. There are areas where the forecast did well (southeast Minas Gerais) and areas where rain was expected but did not materialize (SE SP).
When we quantitatively examine the P/PET only over coffee hectares in Brazil, we can see that the forecast was a bit optimistic for water availability to the coffee plants (see histograms below). Whereas the forecast on 14 November predicted that 38% of the coffee area would receive good rains, only 18% did. On the other end of P/PET moisture stress spectrum, the forecast predicted 18% of the area to be very dry and 19% to be dry while our observed numbers show 10% very dry and 30% dry.
Not a terrible forecast by any means and more location by location examination, over time, will detail how any (and every) specific plantation is doing. Averages over area are useful but our moisture stress signal is detailed so that we can examine the aggregate stress for each location – since ‘flowering’ or the start of the season. More to come!