aWhere Coffee Report: Monitoring Brazil - November 14, 2017

Today was an interesting day in the coffee markets with futures prices trading up 1.00 then down -3.00 and closing -0.45.  Record commercial long positions sit counter to record speculative shorts. 

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aWhere Commodity Report: Early season insight into Brazil's coffee crop

Brazil is the world’s largest producer of coffee.  Current global coffee stocks are quite low in producing countries, and though inventories in consuming countries are fine, all eyes are on this growing season, as it has the potential to be of record size. It could be big enough to replenish stocks, but as most coffee market articles now state: it all depends on the weather.  

The report for 10 November 2017 can be found here: aWhere Commodity Report - Brazil Coffee.

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Food Security Check: A 2017 Look at Sahel Region (Burkina Faso through Niger and northern Nigeria)

John Corbett Ph.D., aWhere, Inc. Chief Science Officer - September 2017

Food Security Check: A 2017 Look at Sahel Region (Burkina Faso through Niger and northern Nigeria) 

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Coffee’s Precarious Position

 

Weather variability has increased and will only become more extreme as the atmosphere warms. A general overview of why this current variability will continue to increase in the coming years can be found in this blog: Food Security and Weather Variability.


Coffee's Precarious Position (August 2017)

  • Coffee stores in many areas are at historic lows
  • Global demand for coffee is steady and growing
  • Understanding each of the coffee tree’s growth stages is
    key to accurately forecasting yields
  • aWhere monitors all of the world’s coffee growing regions 
    with complete, highly localized coverage on a daily basis
  • This complete global coverage allows us to forecast crop
    stress, and ultimately, crop yields

The coffee plant, particularly Arabica (the more rich and tasty type), is vulnerable to decreased production due to many factors from too warm nighttime temperatures to variable rains and drought. Taking between 30-35 weeks from flowering to harvest-ready, the risk of stressed periods is much greater now than ever. Stressed trees are more susceptible to disease and insect damage. The last section of this document is a brief primer on growing coffee and the relationship between the coffee tree and the weather.

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Current condition review - Rainfall is ‘near’ normal in China this season, so why am I concerned about corn (and soybean) production?

Here at aWhere, we monitor the agricultural earth with a weather station’s worth of daily data every 9km – yes, every 9km we construct a virtual weather station. These observed data are current through yesterday and we provide 7 days (and up to 15 days) worth of hourly data for each of these virtual weather stations – forecasts are updated every 6 hours.

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